Cath Lab Digest

Study Predicts Dramatic Diabetes Increases By 2034

By Brian McCurdy, Senior Editor

   A new study in Diabetes Care predicts the rate of diabetes will nearly double in the next 25 years and total healthcare spending for diabetes will nearly triple in the same period.

   Researchers project that the number of people in America diagnosed with diabetes will be 44.1 million in 2034, up from 23.7 million people in 2009. In the Medicare population, the study projects that the population with diabetes will rise from 8.2 million in 2009 to 14.6 million in 2034. In that time period, the study authors say the rate of obesity will remain consistent at about 65 percent of the population.

   In addition, the study authors say annual medical costs in the United States related to diabetes will increase from $113 billion to $336 billion by 2034. They project that the rate of Medicare diabetes spending will increase from $45 billion to $171 billion by 2034.

Conquering Poor Dietary Choices: Are There Any Solutions?

   While there are environmental and genetic components to diabetes, Lee Rogers, DPM, blames environmental factors for the projected escalation in prevalence. Specifically, Dr. Rogers says poor dietary choices are the primary driver behind nearly two-thirds of Americans being overweight or obese. Barry Rosenblum, DPM, agrees. He says the projected increases are clearly linked to conditions like obesity that are potentially preventable or treatable.

   Despite efforts in the public and private sectors, Dr. Rosenblum says the population needs to see greater results in reducing the obesity rates and possibly the incidence of diabetes. Dr. Rogers notes that the government’s attempts at more accurately labeling foods has not had an effect on obesity.

    “While wildly unpopular, a ‘fat tax’ on soft drinks and fast foods, or financial incentives for being healthy may be needed in order to curb this downward trend,” says Dr. Rogers, an Associate Medical Director of the Amputation Prevention Center at Valley Presbyterian Hospital in Los Angeles.

    “I have always been impressed by plans that aim at the pocketbook of the patient,” concurs Dr. Rosenblum, an Assistant Clinical Professor of Surgery at Harvard Medical School. “If possible, perhaps shifting some of the costs to those ‘guilty’ parties may be of benefit. This, however, makes sense in theory but is impossible to implement in practice.”

What About Rewarding Efforts Geared Toward Prevention?

   In regard to higher healthcare costs, Dr. Rosenblum sees them as related to treatment. However, he believes the healthcare system could potentially save costs by rewarding practitioners who conduct sufficient screening tests and significantly reduce obesity prevalence.